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In the last decade, also as a result of a never-ending stream of crises, the bloc has increasingly moved in an intergovernmental direction, with the European Council becoming the EU’s leading decisionmaking institution. And the problem is that the EU’s current system of governance is not up to the challenges the war in Ukraine is posing. Federico Fabbrini Professor of European law at Dublin City University
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A big question mark concerns the more distant future: once the war is over-or frozen-two camps on how to deal with Russia could very well reemerge. “Peace plans” reflect more a concern for a political backlash in our societies than real persuasion in Europe’s role as a credible negotiating actor. If the war drags on, the existing consensus will be more severely tested: but the conditions for a truce are not in Europe’s hands. A cap on energy prices is more consequential than another phone call with Vladimir Putin, at this stage. As Ivan Krastev says, the party of peace may be stronger than the party of justice-but economics will be key.
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However, the way out of this dilemma is economic policies much more than negotiations with Russia. France, Germany, and Italy stand by Ukraine with no ambiguity, but governments know that voters are worried and nervous, especially in the current economic predicament. The problem is not mistrust among the European countries, but domestic consensus down the road. Both NATO and the EU are demonstrating that they are able to accommodate some differences of opinion in the context of a general consensus on strategic decisions. If anything, the reaction to the war in Ukraine has bridged the gaps rather than widen them-and Hungary is just a marginal exception. In reality, how to deal with Russia has always been a divisive issue in Europe. Marta Dassù Senior director of European affairs at the Aspen Institute Were Putin to offer a ceasefire (which he shows no signs of doing), European leaders would be well-advised to distrust him, rather than each other. Since the Russian president has made clear that he wants nothing less than the elimination of Ukraine’s statehood, the answer is clear: no. The second question is whether an early ceasefire is achievable at an acceptable cost and sustainable over a reasonable period, given what European leaders know about Vladimir Putin’s ultimate war aims. If they believe that they have no choice but to fight to save their state from a brutal occupier, then the EU should continue to support them with military supplies and sanctions designed to weaken Russia’s ability to wage war. The first is what the Ukrainians themselves want. Wanting the bloodshed in eastern Ukraine to stop now-when even Ukrainian officials admit that they are suffering almost 1,000 casualties (killed or wounded) every day-is a respectable, if unrealistic, aspiration.īut before they promote a policy that will almost certainly involve Ukraine giving up territory, EU leaders should ask themselves two questions. They should not now overstate their differences or suspect each other’s motives. Ian Bond Director of foreign policy at the Centre for European ReformĮU leaders exaggerated their unity at the start of this crisis.